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Prediction for CME (2026-07-30T16:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-30T16:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47871/-1
CME Note: CME observed as a NE halo in STEREO A COR2, and a NW halo in GOES CCOR-1 partially blocked by the pylon. SOHO LASCO C2/C3 not available in real-time due to a downlink gap. The source is associated with an M1.9 flare from AR 14492 peaking at 2026-07-30T17:00Z, observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed as filament ejecta in SDO AIA 304 first lifting as early as 2026-07-30T15:18Z, more eruptively after 2026-07-15:43Z. SDO AIA 171/193 observe brightening, dimming, field line movement, EUV wave, and post-eruptive arcades. | Arrival: Characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal jumping from ~4.4nT to ~14.3 at 2026-08-02T11:28Z, reaching a maximum B_total of 21.5nT at 2026-08-02T14:56Z and maximum southward B_z of -17.41nT at 2026-08-02T15:02Z. There is a corresponding sharp increase in speed observed from ~290 km/s to ~360 km/s, reaching a maximum speed ~430 km/s. Temperature also increases from ~34,000 K to ~313,000 K further reaching ~479.6k K, with density increasing from ~3 p/cc to ~37 p/cc. This signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-07-30T16:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-08-02T11:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-02T03:00Z (-8.0h, +6.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 30/2120UTC
Radial velocity (km/s): 770
Longitude (deg): 40W
Latitude (deg): 30N
Half-angular width (deg): 55

Lead Time: 46.78 hour(s)
Difference: 8.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-07-31T12:41Z

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